From peak to trough, we’ve seen a 75% drop from $69,000 to around $17,600. We’ve seen a “crypto contagion” of sorts, with the blow-up of the Luna/UST ponzi, the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital (3AC) and other “crypto” market participants undergoing stress, such as Celsius stopping withdrawals and other entities having exposure to 3AC (e.g., Voyager, BlockFi).

Recognizing where we are in the cycle can take a few months. It was similar in early 2018 after the $20,000 high in December 2017. Bitcoin’s price was bouncing around in the teens, and it was halfway through 2018 when it finally became clear to most people that it was a bear market. So, while bitcoin’s high of $69,000 last year was quite lofty, it was arguably the blow-up of Luna that kicked off the crypto contagion and made it more apparent that this is a bear market. After Luna blew up and the Luna 2.0 attempt fell flat, we saw Celsius block withdrawals. This became a stinging reminder to many a yield-chaser about the crucial lesson: “Not your keys, not your coins.”

There was a commonly-quoted statistic, "If you bought bitcoin and held for four years, you were never down," which is no longer valid. Now, if we cherry pick, you could have purchased the December 2017 high of $19,600 and held through to the recent crash to $17,300. You’d be underwater over a roughly four-and-a-half-year period. In fairness, few people would actually be in this scenario, but nevertheless, it does change the statistic.